Real Estate Center At Texas A&M: Is 2016 A Good Year To Buy Or Sell A House?
source: The Katy News
OLLEGE STATION, Jan. 28, 2016 – While the Texas housing market has been going strong the last few years, it’s likely to cool off some this year—but now is still a good time to buy or sell a home, says the chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
Low interest rates make it an especially appealing time to be a buyer, notes Dr. Jim Gaines, adding that the biggest challenge is the lack of selection.
“The only reason that it might not be a good year is some buyers may have a hard time finding what they want,” Gaines observes. “We still have a shortage of existing inventory being listed for sale.”
Last month, Texas had a 3.1-month housing inventory. Center authorities consider 6.5 months a balanced market.
“You’ll have to work very closely with an agent or someone who is close to the market on a day-to-day basis, because in many of our markets properties are being grabbed up almost as soon as they come up for sale,” Gaines points out, “often on the same day and with multiple offers.”
In other words, once you find a home you like, be prepared to act quickly.
This is good news for sellers, who will probably have no trouble getting the price they want — at least for the first half of the year.
“I think we’re going to see a slowdown in the housing market this year, but the market’s not going to stall,” Gaines says.
The median price for a home in Texas last month was $201,900, up $8,200 from the previous month and up $9,900 from a year ago.
“The past four years we’ve had this tremendous imbalance between the demand for housing and the supply being offered for sale,” Gaines observes. “What I think will happen is the demand is going to slow down, and builders will keep supplying because they’ll find there’s still a very good market for new homes. People will decide now’s a good time to buy or sell, maybe before interest rates go up. The market will end up more balanced than it’s been.
“Buyers will start finding that home prices won’t go up as fast and maybe some bargains will come out there.”
Here are how many Texas metros fared in December (data current as of Jan. 25, 2016):
| Dec. 2015 home sales | Year-over-year change | Dec. 2015 median price | Year-over-year change | Months inventory | |
| Abilene | 222 | Up 34.5% | $146,400 | Up 13.1% | 4.4 |
| Amarillo | 271 | Up 13.4% | $139,400 | Down 4.3% | 3.7 |
| Austin | 2,620 | Up 5% | $272,300 | Up 10.9% | 2.1 |
| Beaumont | 258 | Up 27.7% | $137,200 | Up 2.5% | 5.2 |
| College Station-Bryan | 233 | Up 16.5% | $200,000 | Up 12.8% | 2.5 |
| Corpus Christi | 398 | Up 6.1% | $168,200 | Down 3.9% | 5.2 |
| Dallas | 5,669 | Up 19.7% | $236,000 | Up 8.6% | 1.7 |
| El Paso | 574 | Up 5.9% | $144,800 | Up 0.6% | 6.5 |
| Fort Worth | 1,146 | Up 18.8% | $162,000 | Up 6.9% | 2 |
| Galveston | 73 | Down 9.9% | $200,000 | Up 11.1% | 5.6 |
| Harlingen | 80 | Down 8% | $116,700 | Down 1.3% | 16.7 |
| Houston | 6,463 | Down 9.4% | $214,400 | Up 2.5% | 3.2 |
| Irving | 142 | Down 11.8% | $257,500 | Up 0.7% | 1.9 |
| Laredo | 90 | Down 18.9% | $171,100 | Up 17.3% | 5.9 |
| Longview-Marshall | 199 | Down 4.8% | $151,800 | Up 1.7% | 8.2 |
| Lubbock | 310 | Up 10.3% | $135,400 | Up 1.6% | 3 |
| Lufkin | 47 | Down 7.8% | $120,000 | Down 26.3% | 7.9 |
| McAllen | 201 | Down 1.5% | $125,200 | Up 1% | 12.4 |
| Midland | 158 | Down 0.6% | $246,800 | Up 3.6% | 3.4 |
| Odessa | 85 | Down 16.7% | $184,300 | Up 5.1% | 4 |
| San Angelo | 109 | Down 3.5% | $152,500 | Down 3.7% | 4.6 |
| San Antonio | 2,270 | Up 4.9% | $194,500 | Up 6.1% | 3.5 |
| Sherman-Denison | 149 | Up 25.2% | $140,000 | Up 7.7% | 3.2 |
| Texarkana | 105 | Up 25% | $94,300 | Down 2.5% | 6.5 |
| Tyler | 313 | Down 5.7% | $147,100 | Down 9% | 6.1 |
| Victoria | 88 | Up 27.5% | $185,700 | Up 7.2% | 5.4 |
| Waco | 204 | Down 3.3% | $147,000 | Up 3.4% | 3.8 |
| Wichita Falls | 140 | Up 28.4% | $101,000 | Down 2% | 5 |
| Texas | 24,491 | Up 4.7% | $201,900 | Up 5.2% | 3.1 |
Housing market data for these and most other Texas MLSs are available on the Center’s website(https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/).
For more of Gaines’ outlook for 2016, read “2016 Economic and Housing Outlook: Q&A with James Gaines.” It’s online at https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/tierra-grande/2016%20economic%20housing%20outlook.
Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers and the general public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.
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